Before we dive into today’s issue, I want to take the time to wish all the mothers out there a Happy Mother’s Day! A special shout-out goes to all the mothers in my life. You are all such amazing people, and I can’t thank you enough for all you do!
Luckin Coffee’s brand new location on the Upper West Side, just opened May 1st
Luckin Coffee Conquers NYC?
This Sunday started off like many Sundays for me. Most Sundays, I do my long run of the week. Typically, that entails me meandering around Riverside Park and the West Side Highway until I reach my desired mileage, and then maybe a pastry or bagel afterwards if I am feeling up for it. However, this Sunday, I had a very specific destination in mind. I needed to end up at 108th and Broadway, so I could end up, not at the revamped Absolute Bagels, but at the brand new coffee shop that opened up there right across the way, Luckin Coffee.
For those who don’t know, Luckin Coffee is a coffee chain that started in China, focusing on mobile and to-go orders. In fact, you can only place an order on their website or mobile app. Much to the chagrin of the young family that walked out while I was waiting for my order, even though they have a POS terminal, they will not take an order for you on the cash register. This rule is just one quirky thing about them. Luckin does not have a typical history, so let us dive into that first.
October 2017 - Luckin is founded as a small-format coffee shop in Beijing
July 2018 - Luckin raises a $200M Series A, led by Centurium Capital
October 2018 - Luckin now has 1,300 locations
January 2020 - Short-seller Carson Block and his firm Muddy Waters Research published an anonymous 89-page investigative report on Twitter, claiming that Luckin Coffee had falsified financial and operational figures
April 2020 - Luckin revealed that 2019 sales revenue was inflated by $310 million (over half of their revenue that year), the stock price crashed, and executives were fired
June 2020 - NASDAQ suspends trading and delists the stock
February 2021 - Luckin files for bankruptcy
Spring 2021 - Centurium Capital, a Chinese PE firm that was a heavy investor in the company prior, invests $240 million into the company
December 2021 - Class action lawsuits are settled, and the debt is restructured
March 2022 - Luckin emerges from bankruptcy with new executives
March 2023 - Luckin now manages almost 10,000 stores
July 2024 - Luckin now has 20,000 stores
July 2025 - Luckin opens first stores in NYC
February 2026 - Luckin hits its 30,000 locations
March 2026 - Luckin purchases Blue Bottle Coffee from Nestle to expand into the premium space and grow its brand
Talk about a fascinating history, Luckin certainly has that. I expect them to expand rapidly throughout NYC (currently at least 11 in NYC), and then go to other cities in the United States. Today was my first experience at Luckin, so here is my unfiltered reaction:
They had way too many people working for the number of orders they were doing
With that in mind, I have no idea why they did not take walk-in orders
The coffee mostly came from machines where the baristas were pressing buttons, not really crafting it themselves
I got a cold brew, and I did not really like it, it was too bitter (to caveat, I do not really like Starbucks Cold Brew either, but I love a Dunkin’ Iced Coffee or a Bluestone Lane Cold Brew to contextualize my palate)
The food did not look that exciting, mostly a limited selection of pastries
The store was much smaller than a typical coffee shop, but much larger than many of their grab-and-go locations in Asia
There were four tables, and only one was occupied by someone
The app was pretty easy to use and download, and they also had good instructions there
They do not sell any water or have a water cup available, wild to see a coffee shop do that
It felt more like a tech company that sells coffee, not a coffee company with tech layered on top
Pricing was lower than that of most NYC coffee shops
Luckin offers delivery, but I did not see a single delivery driver in the store while I was there, which I cannot say for most other coffee shops I go to that offer deliveries; there is always one delivery driver, if not multiple, in there while I purchase my coffee
To take a step back and zoom out, the entrance of Luckin will have a fascinating impact on the broader coffee market. Luckin has already taken over Starbucks in China, and is looking to do the same in the United States. Let’s set aside the independent operators and focus on the more national side. On the more convenience side, Starbucks is getting beaten on price, value, and ease of ordering by Dunkin, 7Brew, Dutch Bros, to name a few. On the higher-end side, Starbucks is beaten on quality, experience, and depth of assortment by Bluestone Lane, Maman, and La La Land, as a few examples. Now, add Luckin into the mix, which is offering a slightly worse product for way cheaper and better economics on the business side (Luckin is paying much less in operating expenses). It will be interesting to see the impact this has on the industry as a whole. I don’t feel the total market will be growing much from this, so the share will be stolen. Also, I am not sure how many communities will take to this mobile-only ordering.
I am curious to hear what the community thinks the impact Luckin will have on Starbucks, which has been having a strong start to the year:
How will Luckin opening in the US impact Starbucks?
Walmart Expands “Beauty Experts” To 425 Stores After Successful Pilot
It is no secret that the beauty industry continues to skyrocket. In addition to the traditional specialty stores, like Sephora and Ulta, large general merchandise stores are getting into the business of premium beauty products, too. Recently, Target eschewed Ulta’s store in a store so they could fully do it themselves. Unlike Target, Walmart decided to fully do it themselves, starting a 22-store pilot in September 2025. The pilot entailed “Beauty Experts” who would just focus on the beauty section as opposed to floating across the store. The assortment also received an upgrade, positioning of the product was moved up towards the front of the store, and the experts received additional training (at onboarding and on a regular cadence) so they could truly service customers. The pilot was clearly successful, as the plan is to roll out to 425 stores across the United States by the end of this year. It will be interesting to see where these customers are coming from. Is it competing directly with Sephora and Ulta, or is it more of an incremental customer for the brands involved?
GameStop Attempts eBay Takeover & It Gets Ugly
Talk about businesses that have had a wild couple of years, in addition to Luckin Coffee, GameStop is another one that comes to mind, with all the drama around it becoming a meme stock. Despite the stock price continuing to be very high relative to actual business performance, the core fundamentals have struggled, despite the market it’s in; video games and collectibles are doing very well. This week, GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen announced they had amassed a roughly 5% stake in eBay and were offering $125 per share, or $56B total, to purchase the rest of the business. Where does a company that did $3.6B in 2025 revenue get that kind of money to purchase another business? A good question. Most likely, the debt markets, and not be at a low interest rate either. From a customer standpoint, it somewhat makes sense to combine the two businesses. They are generally going after the same collectibles customer, except one in brick and mortar, the other online. The two combined would create a juggernaut in the rapidly growing collectibles space. However, if this acquisition went through, it would saddle the new company with an enormous amount of debt and interest payments, most likely dooming it from the start. A merger or eBay acquisition of GameStop may make more sense, and maybe that is Cohen’s angle, but that is certainly a way to go about getting your desired outcome. In fact, Cohen has made such an impression on eBay that they have banned him from selling on eBay after he had listed a variety of GameStop items on eBay.
Gymkhana Becomes Latest Restaurant to Launch a CPG Product
Gymkhana is a two-Michelin-star Indian restaurant in London. It is part of a broader business that has 30 restaurants across the world, and like many restaurant groups (Carbone, Momofuku, and more) has gone on to launch a CPG brand. For both sides of the business, it has had a big week. On the restaurant side, Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift were spotted dining at the establishment in London. On the CPG side, it annouced a $8.5M Series A funding round led by CAVU Consumer Partners to fuel the US launch. From a retailer strategy, Gymkhana is temporarily going exclusive with Whole Foods before launching further at other retailers. In the press release announcing the fundraise, Gymkhana shared some fascinating retailer data:
Since launching in the UK in 2023, Gymkhana Fine Foods has grown to over 1,000 doors across Whole Foods Market UK, Waitrose and Sainsbury’s. According to Nielsen data, the brand is the primary growth driver across total ambient sauce brands in the UK over the past 26 weeks, outpacing Heinz, Mutti and other major players, with approximately 70% incremental sales in accounts where it has been listed for a full year.
Clearly, they are on to something in the UK, however it will be interesting to see how that translates to the US. From a product perspective, the simmer sauces and marinades are addressing a product gap that is present in most grocery stores. From a branding perspective, Gymkhana lacks the name recognition in the US that it has in the UK. It has only just opened a restaurant in the US in Vegas. In the past year, Momofuku has 51% higher interest according to Google Trends, but that gap is shrinking. This example is fascinating because it pits brand recognition versus an actual product need. I am very excited to follow along and see what wins.
Amazon Launches Supply Chain As A Service
This week, Amazon CEO sat down with the infamous Jim Cramer to talk quarterly results and break some news. The news was officially launching their supply chain as a service product, after unofficially doing it piecemeal with Fulfillment by Amazon, Amazon Carrier, Amazon Freight, and other services. Similar to what Amazon has done with Amazon Web Services to aggregate cloud demand after nailing it for internal tooling, it is looking to do the same for the retail supply chain. Amazon loves turning cost centers into profit centers. Already, some big names are on board. 3M, American Eagle, Procter & Gamble, to name a few. For brands, the advantage is there from a costing standpoint without too much risk. However, for the retailers, there is definitely a risk that it will undifferentiate your product. More than ever, the differentiation for retail is the actual end customer experience, as a strong supply chain gets commoditized. Part of the video here:
Additional Links:
What is the secret to building a great subscription model, which can make you a completely unstoppable business? (read more here)
Do shoppers want to talk to a real human during the process, or are they fine with an AI agent? (read more here)
Gen Z is leading the in-person shopping rebound, propelling malls forward, like this one in Connecticut (read more here)
Stripe is building a digital wallet that will be able to power agentic commerce from a payments perspective and buy things for you (read more here)
Meijer thinks the future weekly grocery run looks very different (read more here)
The Sweetish Fish, a popular Cape Cod Swedish candy brand, has opened its first permanent retail location (read more here)
Why First Watch is changing a menu that hasn’t been touched in nearly a decade (read more here)
Sweetgreen FINALLY launches wraps as it tries to fight back in the slop bowl wars (read more here)
Early readings from Ibotta share that some categories have been really hit with SNAP purchase restrictions (read more here)
Jeese & Ben’s, a seed oil-free frozen fry brand, announces Series A fundraise (read more here)
Events:
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